What History Says About Declines and Recoveries

Market History

I wanted to take a look at what history says about market declines and recoveries.

In the bear markets since 1957 the average decline from top to bottom took 11 months, and the average recovery took 19 months. I would note that if you remove the worst three bear markets, the recovery time drops to just 7 months, looking at how markets have reacted during a midterm election year.

The 12 months prior to the November midterm election month is notably weaker than the non-midterm average. However, the 11 months following the midterm election is notably stronger than the non-midterm average.

Digging a little deeper. The average midterm election year pullback has been a negative -16% one year after the low, which could be made at any time during the year, the market has recovered rallying on average 37%.